Investment

The global economy is on the edge of a precipice

The global economy is on the edge of a precipice, and it may be the biggest crisis since the Second World War.

The invasion of Ukraine has compounded the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. It brings the cost of the food and fuel to skyrocket which weighing on the economic recovery and fanning inflation.

Rising interest rates are putting more pressure on countries, companies, and households. Climate changes, market turbulence and ongoing supply chain constraints also make the situation become more worse.

To lower economic stress, the IMP is calling for government officials and business leaders meeting in Davos to discuss reducing trade barriers.

However, earlier this month, Indian government decided to ban the export of wheat and it triggered the price of grain soaring. Some countries are heading in the opposite direction of IMF and implementing restrictions on trade in food and agriculture products that could probably exacerbate the shortages and push the prices even higher.

Image source: https://www.pexels.com/photo/american-and-chinese-flags-and-usa-dollars-4386371/

Investment

“Fragmentation” is underway

“Fragmentation” – one the many buzzwords heard around Davos this week. “Fragmentation”, it is referring to a breakdown of the kind of free-wheeling, border-crossing trades and investments which have built the global economic order over the past three decades. It also means “deglobalization” – rebuilding fences between nations and nations.

Deglobalization won’t happen overnight but it is not a new issue. Supply-chain disruption, war in Ukraine, growing political divides and trade disputes are renewing concerns about a return of an era of isolation.

Here are the micro-deglobalization playing out in real time:

China’s ride-hailing giant Didi officially delisted its share from NYSE

Starbucks and McDonald’s pulled out of Russian market

Airbnb said it would pull all of it listings in China

Malaysia moved to restrict exports of Chicken to its neighbors

Microsoft slowly scale back their China practice

These supply chains have been built over 30 years, so it’s just really difficult to move them into another country. The US baby formular shortage is a huge public health crisis that indicates the peril of relying too much on domestic production for essential goods. It is far more complicated if governments around the world are doing deglobalization.

Image source: https://www.pexels.com/photo/antique-antique-globe-antique-shop-antique-store-414916/

Investment

USD 3.5 trillion budget plan for Americans

Senate Democats just passed a USD 3.5 trillion plan early Wednesday. The bill will spend on the establishment of a Civilian Climate Corps, adds new dental, cision and hearing benefits to medicare coverage and investment in affordable housing.

Even though the GOP (Republican National Committee) voted against, the bill has passed without a Republican vote. Biden Adminstration previously said the US government will have tax increases on corporations and wealthy individuals to pay for the USD 3.5 trilliion plan.

There are many conerens about the 3.5 trillion plan will cause inflation. President Joe Biden hit back against information concern on Wednesday and would like to downplayed concerns about price hikes. and cited that his plans for the American economy are working. The President Joe Biden said that the consumner price inflation slowed in July. But his adminstration will also outline a number of resolutions  to lower the consumer costs.

However, there is one more concern about his 3.5 trillion plan. There is no one can gurantee the US government will have substantial tax incomes from coporations and wealthy people to cover this plan. Tax incomes may get affected by the pandemic.